Polling, history point to Democratic takeover of House and possibly Senate – clients should prepare now

A core axiom of American politics holds that the out-of-power party gains seats in midterms. Since World War II, the party controlling the White House has lost an average of 28 House seats in midterm elections. The current Republican majority in the House is narrow, and a swing of only a handful of seats would flip control.

Polling and prediction markets as of mid-April 2026 show Democratic advantages in the generic congressional ballot, with prediction markets now pricing a Democratic House takeover as more likely than not.

The Senate map favors Republicans structurally, but the political climate and a motivated Democratic base have made several seats more competitive than usual. While a Democratic Senate majority is not the most likely scenario, it is a possibility for which clients should prepare.

What a Democratic Congress would do: The investigative agenda

Democrats have been clear about their intentions. Minority staff on key committees, including Oversight and Government Reform, Judiciary, Financial Services, Energy and Commerce, the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, and the Select Committee on China, have been actively building investigative records and preparing requests they are ready to turn into formal subpoenas on Day One of the new Congress. In fact, some Ranking Democrats on key investigative committees have already begun sending document preservation letters to potential targets of future inquiries and subpoenas.

During the first Trump administration, Executive Branch agencies and officials routinely ignored requests from Congress and refused to cooperate with the Hill, hindering oversight. We expect this to happen again in the 120th Congress, so Committees will shift their focus to private-sector actors who can be more easily compelled to cooperate.

Committee chairs set the agenda and hearing schedule, have subpoena power, and can compel the production of documents, take depositions, and gather public testimony. They can refer matters to the Department of Justice. They also have the authority to hold witnesses in contempt. The reputational and legal risks for companies targeted by Congress are significant and often underestimated. If Democrats take back the House, their budgets will DOUBLE and they will be free to hire additional staff.

The anticipated areas of focus for investigative activity include:

• Executive branch conduct and DOGE-related activities. Investigations into the Department of Government Efficiency's actions, including contracting decisions, personnel actions, and access to federal data systems, will be a top priority.
• Trump donors/pardon recipients. Entities and individuals who contributed to President Trump’s inauguration or his various projects, including the White House ballroom, are likely to come under scrutiny from the Democrats as they investigate what the Trump Administration may have offered in exchange for these significant contributions. Recipients of Presidential pardons or commutations are also likely targets.
• Federal contractors. Companies that received — or were denied — federal contracts during the Trump administration will face scrutiny over the process and rationale for those decisions. Companies awarded contracts for major Trump policy priorities, like immigration enforcement, and contractors with close ties to the Administration will be top targets.
• Oil and gas industry. Congressional Democrats might hold hearings on gasoline prices, refinery capacity, “price gouging,” climate commitments, and alleged greenwashing, especially if energy prices remain volatile. Democrats have repeatedly highlighted energy costs as a major affordability concern and discussed windfall‑profits arguments and increased oversight of leading producers and refiners.
• Financial services and cryptocurrency. Regulatory rollbacks, enforcement decisions, excessive consumer fees, and the intersection of private financial interests with executive policy will draw sustained committee attention.
• Technology and AI. Antitrust policies, content moderation decisions, AI safety measures, and data privacy are likely to be major focus areas for investigations. Companies that benefited from lax enforcement will face increased scrutiny.
• Healthcare and pharmaceutical pricing. Drug pricing, Medicare and Medicaid policy changes, and affordability.
• Concentrated consumer-facing sectors. Recent Democratic discussions include proposals to break up or regulate “monopolistic firms” in key supply chains such as meatpacking, fertilizer, and grocery retail, with calls to strengthen antitrust enforcement. These sectors sit at the intersection of inflation, food prices, and rural or working-class concerns, which are essential to Democrats’ cost-of-living message.
• Merger Review. Democrats will also examine high-profile mergers, both as they occur and those the Trump Administration considered before the midterms. The hearings will focus not only on the consumer impact of the mergers but also on whether President Trump or the Administration put a “political thumb on the scale” in the review process.
• Businesses, institutions, and firms that enacted policy changes in response to the Trump Administration. Entities that made significant ESG or other policy shifts due to pressure or threats from the Trump Administration will attract Democratic scrutiny. Firms that entered agreements with the administration — whether settlement deals, security clearance restorations, or other arrangements — may also face examination.
• Firms that reduced investment in compliance. Companies that reduced anticorruption efforts or significantly reduced compliance programs and leadership will likely be asked to defend their actions.

What a Democratic Congress would do: The policy agenda

Democrats will also aim to turn their oversight agenda into legislative and policy proposals. We expect the legislative environment in a divided Washington to be highly contentious as Democrats seek to develop a policy platform ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Individual members will also try to position themselves as issue leaders in case Democrats regain the White House and Congress in 2028. We anticipate “affordability” will be the guiding principle for many policy proposals, with a strong focus on health care, housing, energy, AI, and the environment. We also anticipate fights over efforts to reassert legislative primacy, which will require Democratic control of both chambers to have any real effect, absent a shift in Senate Republicans' posture.

Who is most at risk

Vulnerability extends beyond companies with clear political profiles. The following categories of clients should be prepared for outreach from the Hill.

• Any company or individual that received favorable regulatory treatment, enforcement forbearance, or government contracts since January 2025
• Companies that made significant political contributions or maintained relationships with administration figures
• Financial institutions involved in cryptocurrency, private equity, or sovereign wealth transactions with a foreign nexus
• Defense and technology contractors operating under new or expanded government agreements
• Academic institutions and nonprofits whose federal funding relationships have changed materially
• Any executive or entity that was publicly identified by the current administration as an adversary — and subsequently rehabilitated

What clients should do now

Investigations are easier to manage when preparation precedes the issuance of a subpoena. By the time a letter arrives from a committee chair, the ability to shape the narrative is severely constrained.

We recommend that exposed companies begin preparing now, including identifying vulnerabilities, conducting privilege reviews, and developing response strategies. The difference between a client who is subpoenaed and manages the process effectively and one who is blindsided is almost always the quality and timeliness of their preparation.

How we can help

Now is a good time to sit down and discuss the implications of the upcoming elections.

Our Government Relations/Congressional Investigations team works seamlessly across the firm and across party lines to provide fully integrated support to clients.

We have experience across every stage of the congressional investigations cycle — from early risk assessment and privilege review through document production, witness preparation, and public testimony.

We have represented clients before every major House and Senate committee, and our bipartisan roster of attorneys and other professionals includes former US Senators, senior congressional staff, and senior agency officials.

We work closely with the firm’s litigation team to protect our clients’ rights and position them effectively when congressional inquiries exceed appropriate legal or constitutional bounds.

The next nine months represent the critical preparation window. We welcome the opportunity to discuss your needs and would be happy to meet for a preliminary briefing on steps to take now.

Authored by Ivan Zapien, Mike Bell, Tim Bergreen, and Ches Garrison.