Powering Indonesia's future: Key takeaways from the 2025–2034 RUPTL

Key highlights

1. Ambitious green goals with a mix of coal 

The RUPTL sets a bold target to add 69.5 GW of new power generation capacity by 2034. Out of this ambitious target, 76% is slated to come from renewable energy sources (Energi Baru Terbarukan, or EBT), signalling a strong (albeit aspirational) policy shift toward cleaner energy. 

The proposed renewable energy mix will include: 

• Solar: 17.1 GW 
• Hydropower: 11.7 GW 
• Wind: 7.2 GW 
• Geothermal: 5.2 GW 
• Bioenergy: 0.9 GW
• Nuclear: 0.5 GW (planned for Sumatra and Kalimantan) 

Despite the focus on renewables, 24% (16.6 GW) of the new capacity will still come from fossil fuels, primarily gas and coal. 

Despite the RUPL’s green ambitions, it has already drawn criticism from certain media sources for its continued reliance on coal. While the government had previously pledged to halt new coal-fired power projects beyond those already committed, the draft RUPTL permits additional coal plants to be developed as late as 2033. This shift will likely spark concern among investors, environmentalists and energy analysts, who argue that continued reliance on coal undermines Indonesia’s net-zero emissions target for 2060. 

2. Implementation timeline and challenges 

The RUPTL outlines a phased implementation: 

2025–2029: 

• Fossil fuels: 12.7 GW (45%) 
• Renewables: 12.2 GW (44%) 
• Energy storage: 3 GW (11%) 

2030–2034: 

• Renewables: 30.4 GW (73%) 
• Energy storage: 7.3 GW (17%) 

Concerns are mounting over the unprecedent pace of renewable energy development in order to meet the RUPTL’s targets. To stay on track, Indonesia would need to build renewable power plants five times faster in the first five years and 11 times faster in the second half of the plan compared to current rates. 

Given the country added only 3.2 GW of renewable capacity (an average of just 0.53 GW per year) between 2018 and 2023, this raises serious questions about implementation capacity. 

3. Regional distribution and infrastructure 

Capacity additions are planned across the following key regions: 

• Java-Madura-Bali: 33.5 GW 
• Sumatra: 15.1 GW 
• Sulawesi: 10.4 GW 
• Kalimantan: 5.8 GW 
• Maluku-Papua-Nusa Tenggara: 4.7 GW 

To support this growth, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) will build 47,758 km of transmission lines and expand substation capacity by 107,950 MVA. These infrastructure upgrades are essential for integrating variable renewable energy sources and ensuring reliable power delivery. 

4. Investment needs and policy gaps 

The RUPTL estimates that IDR 2,133.7 trillion is needed to achieve its targets. Of this, PLN is expected to contribute IDR 567.6 trillion, while the government aims to attract IDR 1,566.1 trillion from IPPs, who are projected to develop 73% of the new generation capacity. In addition, transmission infrastructure alone is projected to require IDR 565.3 trillion in investment, although the extent of private sector participation remains uncertain. 

The RUPTL aligns with Indonesia’s goal of achieving 8% economic growth by 2029 and supports the country’s broader energy transition agenda. While the RUPTL marks a significant step forward in the development of Indonesia’s energy sector, with a strong emphasis on renewable energy and sustainable development, it remains at odds with Indonesia’s 2060 net-zero emissions target, particularly due to its continued reliance on fossil fuels. 

The RUPTL carries significant strategic implications and offers substantial opportunities for investment and job creation. As Indonesia advances its energy transition, the RUPTL will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of its national power sector. However, to achieve its ambitious targets, Indonesia must overcome several challenges, especially in light of the previous RUPTL’s underperformance in renewable energy deployment. 

Indonesia must prioritise the establishment of clear and consistent regulatory frameworks to attract investment and introduce more competitive power purchase agreements in order to attract sustained investment participation, especially from foreign investors seeking clarity and long-term certainty. For investors, the RUPTL offers both opportunity and risk. Strategic engagement, policy clarity, and regulatory reform will be critical to unlocking the full potential of Indonesia’s energy transition. 

Authored by Matt Bubb, Mochamad Kasmali, Stephen Clugston, and Karina Antonio.